How the work is made
Methodology
The value of research is in the reasoning and the record. This page explains exactly how both are produced here so you can judge the work on its merits.
Anatomy of a report
Every report follows the same 12 sections. Consistency makes the work easier to read and harder to fudge — the same questions get answered every time.
- 01
Recommendation
The call (Long/Short/Hold), conviction, price target, horizon.
- 02
Executive Summary
The thesis in a paragraph: what I think, why, and why now.
- 03
Company Overview
How the company operates and makes money.
- 04
Industry & Competitive Positioning
The market structure and where the company stands within it.
- 05
Investment Thesis & Variant View
Where my view differs from consensus or the price — with the reasons.
- 06
Catalysts
The identifiable catalysts for the thesis to play out.
- 07
Valuation
A DCF reconciled against comparable companies and precedent transactions.
- 08
Financial Model Summary
Key drivers and outputs from the underlying three-statement model.
- 09
Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
How the target moves under bear / base / bull assumptions.
- 10
Risks, Mitigants & Disconfirmers
The threats to the thesis, their mitigants, and the disconfirming evidence I’m watching for.
- 11
Position & Sizing
How the idea would be sized and expressed, and why, given conviction and risk.
- 12
Appendix & Sources
Primary filings, data, and the trail behind the numbers.
The model behind every report
Every report is built on a full working model, and each one links straight to it — athree-statement build feeding aDCF, cross-checked against comparable companies and precedent transactions. Nothing in the write-up is asserted that the model can’t support.
The models are shared openly as read-only Google Sheets, so the assumptions, drivers, and math are all inspectable — you can see exactly where a price target comes from.
Losers stay published
Nothing is deleted. Calls that go wrong stay on the site with their original timestamp, price, and target. A track record only means something if it includes the misses — so this one does, on purpose.
Not investment advice. Starzecki Research is an independent, educational project. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Prices, figures, and price targets may be delayed, approximate, or in error. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before investing.